According to a new analysis by the International Energy Agency, if nations keep their latest emissions targets, global temperatures may be limited to 1.8°C by the end of the century.
The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were established in 2015. They include goals such as “end poverty in all its forms everywhere,” but they fall short of the planet’s current trajectory, according to the OECD agency, which is part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The new study by the IEA includes pledges made at the COP26 United Nations climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland this week. Many countries attending the current meeting have committed to eliminating carbon emissions by 2050, and dozens of nations have pledged to reduce methane releases by over a third.
According to a separate organization called Climate Action Tracker, the world is expected to warm by between 2.7 and 3.1 degrees Celsius (4.8 and 5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) under current policies, compared to pre-industrial levels. That’s above the goal of 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) rise agreed in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and regarded as necessary to avoid severe consequences of global warming, according to a report from environmental consulting company E3G published in The Guardian on Monday.”
The International Energy Agency, a global organization that advises industrialized countries on energy policy and provides analysis to developing nations on how to develop their economies while reducing carbon emissions, had predicted that if countries were able to fulfill their climate commitments made up to that point, average global temperatures by the end of the century would rise by 2.1 degrees Celsius (3.8 Fahrenheit) from preindustrial levels.
“But since mid-October, more countries have been raising their goals,” according to the IEA’s study. “India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi increased the country’s 2030 objectives and committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2070. Several additional major economies have also made plans to achieve net-zero emissions.”
The study also took into account international commitments made by China — which has recently surpassed the United States as the world’s largest polluter — as well as more than 100 countries’ promises to cut methane emissions by 30%.
According to Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, the findings are a “major step forward,” but added that much more is still needed.
It’s critical to meet the climate targets.
The claim was met with significant doubt, however, since in order for this rosy scenario to come true, nations would need to follow through with their promises. Many of the world’s worst polluters have fallen short on their past commitments and fulfilling them will be a Herculean task.
The United States, with its large economy and significant carbon footprint, is one of the world’s worst polluters. The Biden administration’s plans to reduce U.S. production still need approval from a divided Congress, despite the fact that several major nations, such as Australia and Russia , have yet to say how they will go about reducing their emissions.
The IEA prediction came as a surprise to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who called it “very exciting.” It’s good, he said, but it demonstrates how crucial it will be for nations to keep their promises if they are going to be met. “The key is implementation,” he added during a news conference at the United Nations in New York City.
The World Resources Institute, a climate policy think tank that advises governments on sustainable development, suggests that holding temperature increase to 1.8 degrees Celsius is feasible if everything goes as planned. However, it also warned about several of the net-zero carbon emission goals recently adopted.
Meanwhile, Australian researchers have conducted a separate study that has not yet been published, which predicts a warming of 1.9 degrees Celsius if current pledges are maintained.
According to The Associated Press, University of Melbourne climate scientist Malte Meinshausen said that the improved outlook comes almost entirely as a result of new long-term commitments by India and China.
“It’s still a long way to 1.5 degrees,” Meinshausen acknowledged, adding, “We know that some ecosystems will suffer.”
“It’s only scraping below 2 degrees. As a result, there is still much more to be done,” he emphasized.
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